919
FXUS64 KMRX 292338 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
638 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- ARCTIC COLD WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH WILL INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVER AT LEAST
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, TRACKING OVER OUR AREA AND THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST
AND NORTHEAST. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. THE
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL MATTER FOR THE AMOUNTS,
BUT WE WILL SEE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN
HALF. CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR EASTERN HALF. WILL HAVE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
IS STILL LOWER. PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE NOT IN QUESTION, AS IT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE, ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL ACCUMULATE AND EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL
CAUSE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME
BLOWING OF SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE OTHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH IN ON THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER 20S EVEN
IN THE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY WITH WELL BELOW ZERO VALUES AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA, AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TO BE VERY COLD AS
WELL. HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE E TN MOUNTAINS AND
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
EARLY IN THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AND WE WILL BEGIN A
MODERATING TREND. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO NEAR, OR INTO, THE 40S ACROSS
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT FAR
OUT, BUT GENERALLY INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE AREA
DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME, AND CURRENT THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WOULD LIKELY BE
RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS THE ARRIVAL TIME OF SHSN AND
ASSOCIATED LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN
INVOF KTRI MID/LATE MORNING, WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNOW ARRIVING BY
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT TO BE DELAYED 3-4 HOURS FOR KTYS, WITH
KCHA LIKELY NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL JUST AFTER THE 00Z
PERIOD. HAVE VSBY AND CIGS LOWERING ACCORDINGLY IN THE SNOW.
OTHERWISE, PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE TN VALLEY COULD PRODUCE
SOME 12-18KT GUSTS AT KCHA LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT HAVE CAPPED IT
AT 10KT FOR THE TIME BEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 44 18 25 / 0 10 40 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 25 38 17 22 / 0 40 80 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 25 38 16 22 / 0 40 70 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 33 15 20 / 10 70 90 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
EAST POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANDERSON-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-LOUDON-MCMINN-
MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-UNION-WEST POLK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD
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