165
FXUS64 KMRX 301713
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1213 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
- HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS BEING ALONG AND NEAR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT STILL
IMPACTFUL ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
- EXTREME COLD WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR BELOW 0 SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VALUES FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENTLY, THE UPPER JET IS FAIRLY ZONAL TO OUR SOUTH WITH A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AN
ARCTIC HIGH NEAR 1,045MB IS CENTERED JUST BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ALREADY BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE WEAK LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UNLIKE MANY WINTER
EVENTS WE SEE (INCLUDING LAST WEEK), THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
IMPRESSIVELY COLD, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR OR BELOW -10 CELSIUS. AS THE PROFILE MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH, TEMPERATURES AT 925MB WILL BE NEARLY AS COLD. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW MUCH QPF FALLS. WITH THIS THERMAL
PROFILE, SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH, 15:1 AND RISING TO NEAR
20:1 SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS KEPT
THE OVERALL LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS, EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST TENNESEE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TREND IN
TOTALS HAS BEEN UPWARDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME PLACES IN THE
CURRENT WARNING AREA INCREASING BY 2 INCHES OR MORE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME INCREASES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVISORY, WHICH HAS LED TO AN EXPANSION OF
THE WARNING. ALSO, THERE HAVE BEEN BETTER INDICATIONS FOR SNOW IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND TO BLEDSOE COUNTY WHERE A LOW-
END ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED. WITH THE VERTICAL ASCENT AND
ABNORMALLY HIGH THESE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE, ONLY MINOR INCREASES TO
QPF ARE NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE WARNING, 4 TO 8 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY REACHING A FOOT. EVEN PLACES LIKE KNOXVILLE COULD
REASONABLY SEE 4 TO EVEN NEAR 6 INCHES BASED ON THIS TREND.
AS SNOW DECREASES NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING, EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS.
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 20 DEGREES AND A STRONG MSLP
GRADIENT, BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO NEAR OR BELOW 0
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION WITH VALUES MUCH COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESSENED SUNDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED
TO OUR SOUTH, PROVIDING BETTER SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. PLACES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER COULD CERTAINLY DROP
TO NEAR OR BELOW 0 FOR ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY, TROUGHING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD, LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES AND A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST. BY TUESDAY, FURTHER HEIGHT RISES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN DAYTIME HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN, BUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
DETEORIATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/VFR ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY AND CEILING DROPPING.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN WITH THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY AT CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 20 26 14 35 / 40 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 17 22 9 28 / 80 70 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 16 22 10 30 / 70 50 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 21 5 25 / 80 80 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR EAST POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-WEST POLK.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DH
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