258
FXUS64 KMRX 310336
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1036 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
- HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/AFTEROON. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT STILL IMPACTFUL ACROSS
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
- EXTREME COLD WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR BELOW 0 SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 20
BELOW ZERO.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
DEFORMATION BANDING OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY IN SOME PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF THE
OFFICE SUCH AS, GREENE COUNTY UP TO BRISTOL AND INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES HAS MADE I-81 AND OTHER MAJOR ROADS
TREACHEROUS.
IF BANDING CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT, IT'S POSSIBLE SOME
PLACES IN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RECEIVE MORE SNOW THAN FORECAST.
KS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE NEW FORECAST AS ALL THE LATEST
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE BIGGEST CHANGES WERE TO ADD
HAMILTON AND SEQUATCHIE COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DUE TO SOME VERY MINOR, BUT POSSIBLE IMPACTFUL, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE
EXISTING WINTER AND COLD PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
SNOWFALL:
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINA BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY WON'T BEGIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST TN VALLEY UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. SNOW
CRANKS UP OVERNIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AND A
DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
BAND. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THIS HEAVIER BAND WILL BE EAST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF OUR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED FLURRIES
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO
REFREEZING, AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST AREAS.
WIND CHILLS AND COLD:
EXTREMELY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 20S ON SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING FROM 20 TO 25 MPH.
PLEASE TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND ANYTIME
OUTDOORS AND DRESS APPROPRIATELY AS FROST BIT CAN OCCUR RATHER
QUICKLY ON ANY EXPOSED SKIN. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING BEGINS
SATURDAY AFTEROON AND GOES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -5 TO -20F. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL OCCUR IF
UNPROTECTED SKIN IS EXPOSED TO THESE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. WITH CALMING WINDS,
CLEARING SKIES, AND SNOWPACK, OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST TN, SINGLE DIGITS
CENTRAL TN VALLEY, AND MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RIDING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER MIDWEEK SYSTEM
THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, REACHING KCHA BY 03Z. EXPECT VSBY TO BOUNCE
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN 1-3SM IN THE SNOW, WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN
THE OVC015-020 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TOMORROW, SNOW BEGINS WIND
DOWN AFTER 18-21Z, WITH CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVING BY THAT TIME.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AT KTYS AND KCHA, WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25KT AT KCHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 19 26 15 35 / 40 30 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 16 22 9 28 / 90 80 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 15 22 10 31 / 80 60 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 13 19 5 25 / 90 80 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR EAST POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-WEST POLK.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
HAMILTON-SEQUATCHIE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD
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