187
FXUS64 KMRX 311131
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
631 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
- EXTREME COLD WILL RETURN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND
CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW 0 AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW A PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND 700MB AND INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE FORCING. THE FORCING/OMEGA WITHIN
THE FAVORABLE DGZ WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE A MODERATE TO HEAVY
BAND OF SNOW. THIS BAND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED 5+ INCHES ACROSS
BRISTOL, GREENEVILLE, PARTS OF COCKE AND INTO THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS BEING
REPORTED.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE/BAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
SO HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. HREF/REFS MEAN SNOWFALL SHOW ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WSW
PRODUCTS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SQUEEZING OUT
ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/EXTREME COLD WARNING
REMAINING IN EFFECT.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR A WELCOMED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES.
FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SHORT-WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
BOUNDARY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT MAY
END AS SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING
AT CHA. SNOW CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR TYS
AND TRI. LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO
30KTS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT CHA AND TYS, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS AT TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 26 15 36 20 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 8 29 11 / 80 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 23 10 31 13 / 60 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 6 25 2 / 90 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR EAST POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KRS
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