098
FXUS64 KMRX 010245
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 941 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
- SNOW TAPERING OFF IN THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH UPSLOPE NW WINDS KEEPING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES GOING
OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- EXTREME COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW 0
AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS THAT WERE
SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST, HAVE BEEN CANCELLED MUCH EARLIER DUE TO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION COMING TO AN END. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF NE TN AND SW
VA.
KS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT WILL TRANSITION FROM BEING SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN TO NW FLOW UPSLOPE FORCING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST, AWAY
FROM OUR AREA AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY MAY SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TN
WHERE A BRISK N-NW WIND WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. MOUNTAIN ZONES MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 INCHES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION, THE EXPIRATION TIMES OF THE WW ADVISORY AND WS WARNING
WILL BE KEPT UNCHANGED - 00Z FOR THE WW.Y, 06Z FOR THE WS.W. POP/WX
GRIDS WERE CHANGED FROM THE NBM OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES IN NE TN/SW VA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME FLURRIES AROUND AS LONG AS THERE ARE CLOUDS
PRESENT.
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MOST OF THE TN VALLEY, AND BELOW 0 IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADD
IN A WIND BETWEEN 10-20 MPH, AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING. TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
CONSIDERATION, THE FORECAST WENT WITH NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY ICY SPOTS ON ROADS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SLICK THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WHEN WE WILL
SEE MORE FULL SUN AREA-WIDE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SHORT-WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND ENHANCE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT MAY END AS SNOW
SHOWERS.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
OUTSIDE OF KTRI, GENERALLY EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING MVFR DECK, BUT
OBSERVATIONS AREN'T CONFIRMING THAT SO WILL STICK WITH THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. AT KTRI HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND VSBY UNDER
1SM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
VSBY CLEARS UP. PLAYED THE PERSISTENCE ROUTE FOR THE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 16Z, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ON THAT. ONCE THE SNOW
STOPS, THEY MAY JUMP TO THE SAME OVC035-060 RANGE THAT MOST OTHER
PLACES IN THE TN VALLEY ARE SEEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 13 35 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 6 26 8 38 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 9 29 12 39 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 2 22 -1 32 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page