431
FXUS64 KMRX 011133
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
- UPSLOPE NW WINDS MAY KEEP LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW 0 AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THIS COMING WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
ACCORDING TO SPC MESO ANALYSIS, A NEAR 528DAM CLOSED UPPER LOW
SITS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT DRAGGED
PRETTY FAR SOUTH IS WHAT'S CONTRIBUTING TO OUR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM. THE COASTAL STORM OFF-
SHORE OF HATTERAS, IS AROUND 990 MB. THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULL AWAY INTO SEA AND WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT
MOVES OVER THE GULF COAST. WINDS AND GUSTS AT THIS TIME BECAUSE
OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS. THE REALLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PAIRED WITH THE WINDS IS WHY WIND CHILLS COULD REACH 20 BELOW
ZERO OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND
EXTREME COLD WARNING GO THROUGH 1 PM TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE PRETTY COLD DURING THE DAY TODAY. SNOWPACK WILL FURTHER
IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH.
A DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
RETURNING. NNW FLOW MAY KEEP FLURRIES GOING OVER PARTS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE THAT, EXPECT A DRY DAY.
FOR TONIGHT, LOWS MAY BE A BIT WARMER (AGAIN, BEING IMPACTED BY
SNOWPACK), AND WINDS MUCH LESS, MEANING WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS
IMPACTFUL OR COLD. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. WE WILL RE-VISIT LATER TODAY IF A HAZARD
PRODUCT WILL NEED RE-ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO BREAK
FREEZING AS NORTH AS THE TN AND VA STATE LINES. THIS MAY HELP
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF MELTING THE ICE AND SNOW. TUESDAY, EVEN
WARMER WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED TO THE EAST, ALLOWING RETURN FLOW. A SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW DIVING FROM THE NW, MAY BRING A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN, BUT LOCATIONS THAT GET TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAY HAVE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES THEN COOL INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD AROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
LOW VFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED BRIEF PROB30S
FOR LIGHT SNOW AT ALL SITES DUE TO ON-GOING FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE PROB30 AT TRI BASED ON
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WINDS AROUND 10-12KTS AT CHA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 20 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 11 39 24 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 28 13 40 24 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 4 33 19 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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