213
FXUS64 KMRX 020638
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
CONDITIONS HAVE TURNED CALM THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOWPACK. A NEAR 1028 MB SURFACE
HIGH SITS OVERHEAD. WE'RE SITUATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGHING
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF -12
TO -7C AT 850 MB REACHING DOWN INTO OUR AREA FROM WV. AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS, EVEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WERE NEAR
ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. MUCH COLDER GUIDANCE WAS USED
FOR THE LOWS THIS MORNING TO BEST CAPTURE WHAT WE COULD ACHIEVE
WITH CALM, SUBSIDENCE, AND FRESH SNOWPACK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL TN TO KY AND NORTH,
MAY HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ANY COLDER THIS
MORNING, BUT THAT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
ARRIVAL. THOSE FURTHER TO THE EAST (TRI-CITIES, SW VA, ETC.), MAY
NOT RECEIVE THE CLOUD COVER IN TIME. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
RECENTLY ISSUED IS MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES ALONE, SINCE CALM
CONDITIONS CANNOT CREATE WIND CHILLS.
ONCE WE TURN THE CORNER ON THE COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, IT
SHOULD PAN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH MANY SEEING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING; EXCEPT MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND PARTS
OF NE TN AND SW VA. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH GREATER MELTING THAN FROM
SUBLIMATION ALONE IN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. TUESDAY, ALMOST
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS.
A FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING, EXCEPT THIS TIME WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN. LOCATIONS
THAT GET TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAY HAVE A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE MINOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES THEN COOL INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD AROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT ATOP THE REGION
FROM THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT CHA IN THE EARLY AM HOURS, TYS BY MID-MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND TRI AROUND MID-DAY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TRI, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HARSHLY COLD AIR
TEMPERATURES PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER BOONE LAKE. THIS HAS
LEAD TO A LIFR CIG. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW
EXACTLY THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. WILL AMEND IN
A PROB30 FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS BEING
SOMETHING THAT PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE MORNING AS THE VERY COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE - OR AT A MINIMUM, IS SOMETHING THAT OCCURS
ON AND OFF UNTIL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 28 54 38 / 0 0 70 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 25 49 35 / 0 0 60 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 24 47 35 / 0 0 70 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 19 44 34 / 0 0 50 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page