445
FXUS64 KMRX 031145
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
645 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- ISOLATED AREAS OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. LOW TEMPS
COULD SINK AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY LATER TODAY, MAINLY AS RAIN.
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT
COULD SEE SNOW MIX TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL.
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIGHT, IF ANY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ACTUAL AMOUNTS AND WHAT COULD STICK.
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WE DON'T SUSPECT IT WILL BE LIKE 24 HOURS AGO, BUT THE CLEARING
SKIES, CALM SURFACE CONDITIONS, AND LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IS RESULTING
IN SOME TEMPERATURES ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST. A CLOUD DECK
EARLIER TODAY ENVELOPED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. AS THIS DECK HAS SLOWLY
EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST, FAST DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED IN SOME
LOCATIONS, MAINLY WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. WE MAINLY DON'T
SUSPECT IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AS BAD, BECAUSE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FEATURES ARE DIFFERENT COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING; WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WESTERLY FLOW, AND
HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT. EVEN STILL, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, PERHAPS, IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
CLOUDS EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM. FLOW WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SE, SO TEMPERATURES, IN THEORY, SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. WHAT WILL POSSIBLY AGAIN COMPLICATE THINGS LIKE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, IS SNOWPACK MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
LESS. HAVE SIDED WITH A BIT CHILLIER GUIDANCE WITH THIS IN MIND.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST TODAY, THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE AND FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN. SINCE THIS IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT BEHIND IT. EARLY ON, PARTS OF
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD MOSTLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT
FURTHER ALONG INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
(PERHAPS COLDER WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK), MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEASURABLE SNOW BETWEEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND AN INCH (HIGHEST ELEVATIONS), IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT THAT WILL ACTUALLY BE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, OLD SNOW ON THE
GROUND WITH BARE GROUND, ETC.
LATER WEDNESDAY TURNS DRY AND THAT MOSTLY PERSISTS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, EXCEPT AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A CLIPPER FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER, SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THAT ONE CLOSELY.
THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WEEK APPEARS WILL BE THURSDAY UNDER
BACKSIDE TROUGHING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
DECREASING CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PREDOMINANT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO ALL THREE SITES. WITH
EXPECTED RAIN/BR AROUND AT TIMES, CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIFR
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 40 47 23 / 90 90 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 36 42 21 / 80 90 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 35 41 20 / 90 90 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 34 40 19 / 70 90 70 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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