921
FXUS64 KMRX 031746
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1246 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING, MAINLY AS RAIN
TONIGHT BUT ENDING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS.
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL BE
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STARTING TO
BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
PRECIP WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS QG FORCING
DEVELOPS AND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO MIDDLE TN. QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE RANGE OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE BULK OF
THIS OCCURRING BETWEEN 00-06Z. BY 12Z THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT THE POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LAGS WELL BEHIND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR
LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
850 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, CREATING A NW FLOW THAT
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CHANGE ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO SNOW.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE TN MOUNTAINS, WITH A DUSTING
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY AND SW VA.
WE MAINTAIN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT REACHING OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
SNOW SHOWERS IN SW VA AND NE TN MOUNTAINS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT IMPACTFUL.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MIGHT EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE FROM
THE RECENT COLD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
INCREASING CLOUDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
FALLING TO MVFR IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES AS LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 49 24 45 / 90 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 43 23 38 / 100 40 30 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 42 20 40 / 90 30 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 40 20 35 / 90 70 50 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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