024
FXUS64 KMRX 040600
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (POTENTIALLY INTO
MIDDAY FOR SNOWIER LOCALES), LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY, BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TENNESSEE AND ESPECIALLY ELEVATED LOCATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TN
VALLEY AND SW VA, UP TO AN INCH IN THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. BLACK
ICE OF CONCERN THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
REMAINING SNOW.
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
- PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
MUCH OF THE REGION IS ENCASED IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RIGHT NOW THANKS
TO RAIN FALLING ON A STILL PRESENT SNOWPACK. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE, SO DRIVE WITH CAUTION THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND MAY PERSIST INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
LIFTING INTO LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS DONE WITH
THIS EVENT, ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP SNOW FAIRLY LIMITED, AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING 1 INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CARTER
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES, BUT A RE-WHITENING OF MUCH OF THE GROUND IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
OTHER CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE BLACK ICE FORMATION AS MELTWATER FROM THE RETREATING SNOW AND
REMNANT SHOWERS FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE BACK INTO THE LOWER
20S.
ON FRIDAY A SECONDARY TROUGH BRINGS A 130 KNOT UPPER JET, SUBSEQUENT
DYNAMICS ALLOW FOR A SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW TO CROSS NORTHERN TN INTO
VIRGINIA DURING THE PM HOURS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AT THIS RANGE LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL, THOUGH SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST
SHOT OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ONCE AGAIN.
A LITTLE BIT MORE HAND FIGHTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE CAN FINALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS AT LAST TO EAST
TENNESSEE. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A CONSISTENT THAW
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THIS MORNING, PREDOMINANT IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE INTERMITTENT, BUT THE COMBINATION OF PAST RAINFALL
AND SNOWMELT WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT REDUCTIONS IN VIS,
PARTICULARLY AT TRI/TYS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN. CHA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS. TYS/TRI COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY,
AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOCKED INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 25 45 27 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 23 39 24 / 50 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 21 40 24 / 40 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 21 35 20 / 70 50 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...KRS
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