202
FXUS64 KMRX 041747
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED LOCATIONS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS.
- BLACK ICE IS A CONCERN THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO TODAY'S RAIN AND
MELTING SNOW FREEZING ON ROADS AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
20S.
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWES HAVE PERSISTED TODAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. 850 MB COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
AND WE ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND VA/KY BORDER
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH WEAK FORCING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE
BARELY REACHING THE -10 C LEVEL, PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AS IT
CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. AN UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENET WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LATER INTO THE
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A HALF TO 1 INCH ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NE TN AND SW VA MAY SEE A DUSTING
AT MOST.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY MORNING IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S CAUSING MELTING SNOW AND RAIN TODAY FREEZING INTO
BLACK ICE ON ROADS. A SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF COLD ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SW VA AND
NE TN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE
MOISTURE INTO SNOW. TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S NORTH, AND 40S SOUTH.
A WELCOME WARM UP WILL COME NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY LIFTING NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. VIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE, DEPENDING ON PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. TAFS WILL BE A BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
POINT, AND UPDATED AS NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 45 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 39 24 50 / 30 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 40 24 51 / 20 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 35 20 41 / 50 0 0 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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