129
FXUS64 KMRX 042335
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
635 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED LOCATIONS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS.
- BLACK ICE IS A CONCERN THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO TODAY'S RAIN AND
MELTING SNOW FREEZING ON ROADS AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
20S.
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. 850 MB COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND WE ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND
VA/KY BORDER NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH WEAK FORCING AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE BARELY REACHING THE -10 C LEVEL, PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AS
IT CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LATER INTO
THE NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A HALF TO 1 INCH ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NE TN AND SW VA MAY SEE A
DUSTING AT MOST.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY MORNING IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S CAUSING MELTING SNOW AND RAIN TODAY FREEZING INTO
BLACK ICE ON ROADS. A SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF COLD ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SW VA AND
NE TN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE
MOISTURE INTO SNOW. TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S NORTH, AND 40S SOUTH.
A WELCOME WARM UP WILL COME NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
POOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT, WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS LATER. KEPT KTRI
ON A PESSIMISTIC RECOVERY LATE TOMORROW, THOUGH CLEARING TO VFR
IS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS HOW PREVALENT FZFG IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VALLEYS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY MITIGATING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW KEPT EXPLICIT FOG OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 45 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 39 24 50 / 30 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 40 24 51 / 20 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 35 20 41 / 50 0 0 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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