118
FXUS64 KMRX 061157
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
657 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 649 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET IN SW VA AND THE
E TN MOUNTAINS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN SW VA AND NE TN MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
HALF AN INCH.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
- VERY COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN NE TENNESSEE, SW VIRGINIA AND THE
MOUNTAINS. BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ANYWHERE THAT MOISTURE LINGERS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH GOOD TIMING AT MAX HEATING MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET
WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW TOTALS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA GENERALLY AT AND
ABOVE 2500 FEET. THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE UP TO 6 INCHES. HREF IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NBM. VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NE TENNESSEE AND
SW VIRGINIA MAY SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH BUT THEY WILL HAVE A MUCH
SHORTER DURATION OF SNOW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AT THE
WARMEST PART OF THE DAY AND PRECIP BEING PREDOMINATELY TERRAIN
ENHANCED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY NEAR KNOXVILLE WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING.
A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR KNOXVILLE IN THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE, PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF SHARPLY BUT
SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH STRONG 850MB FLOW. WITH A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION, DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS SIMILAR TO THE
VALLEY. IN THE TN VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DECREASING SOMEWHAT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
SATURDAY WILL BE COLD BUT THE SUN SHOULD RETURN. SUNDAY BEGINS A
WARMING TREND AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES CLOSER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID EVEN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TODAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KT POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
TRI MAY MAINLY REMAIN AT MVFR TODAY, WITH CHA AND TYS AT VFR UNTIL
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NNW THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY IMPACTING TRI WITH RAIN TO START, AND THEN
FINISHING OFF WITH SNOW WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP. LIGHT PRECIP MAY
REACH TYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 31 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 24 34 19 / 20 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 23 35 20 / 20 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 18 28 11 / 80 60 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-UNICOI.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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