164
FXUS64 KMRX 062330
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET IN SW VA AND THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST PEAKS, GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN
MAY SEE UP TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
- WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND
-15F.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SNOW:
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
OUT OF KY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE A GOOD NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL
EVENT ACROSS THE SWVA AND EAST TN MOUNTAINS. AS PRECIP MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET AND
ABOVE. THE RAIN SNOW LINES THEN MOVES DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE, MODELS SHOW
AN ADDITIONAL FETCH OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SWVA. GENERALLY, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED AROUND 2500 FEET AND ABOVE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL EAST TN VALLEY BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WIND:
850MB WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT AROUND 30 TO 40KTS FROM OUT OF THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT DURING THIS
TIME. ELSEWHERE, ALL OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA, WINDS
WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COLD:
DUE TO THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL TO -5 TO -15 DEG F. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIP EXITS EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND WE CLEAR OUT QUICKLY, WITH
PLENTY OF SUN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY
DAY. SUNDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES CLOSER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED. NBM KEEPS POPS IN
THEREAFTER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT, A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHERN TN AND SOUTHERN VA AFTER 06Z, BRIEF
AND SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN A DRAMATIC
REDUCTION AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER TO VFR. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES, BEFORE GREATLY REDUCING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 15-18Z OR
SO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 44 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 35 20 47 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 22 36 20 47 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 16 28 12 38 / 60 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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