713
FXUS64 KMRX 072328
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
-QUICK ROUND OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY??
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST
TN MOUNTAINS FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN
BEING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
CURRENTLY A SUNNY BUT CHILLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING FOR MANY, BUT BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BRINGING THE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20-25 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY HAS A BIT OF AN INTERESTING/TRICKY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MAY
IMPACT OUR REGION. A WEAK FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND (LAKE
EFFECT SNOW?) LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING
AT LEAST SOME SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LAKE TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT VARY GREATLY WITH THE EXTENT OF THE SNOW,
AND HOW MUCH MIGHT OCCUR. ONE BIG WRINKLE WITH THIS IS HOW ARE THE
MODELS HANDLING THE ICE COVER FOR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
CURRENT NOAA COASTWATCH ESTIMATES A DECENT EXTENT OF THE ICE ON
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE... HAVING GREATER THAN 50% ICE
COVERAGE EVEN NORTH OF CHICAGO. THIS ICE WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS PUT INTO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS SNOW BAND TO TAP
INTO. IN ADDITION THE MODELS HAVE POORLY HANDLED DEW POINTS
RECENTLY, WITH MOST RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
ACTUALLY OCCURS. IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES IT WOULD LIKELY EAT
INTO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE TO SATURATE
BEFORE SNOW REALLY STARTS TO ACCUMULATE. WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS LITTLE FEATURE AS IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING TO INCH
OF SNOW FOR SOME PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS MOST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS THE 1" SNOWFALL TOTALS JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA. HOPEFULLY THE SUN IS ABLE TO POKE IT'S HEAD BACK OUT
FOR THE AFTERNOON TO HELP MELT OFF SOME OF THE SNOW THAT COULD
FALL IN THE MORNING.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WE'LL BE ENTERING A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE SIT ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF, WHICH WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, EVEN
THOUGH A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST
DAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT PLACES IN
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE COULD TOUCH THE 70 DEGREE MARK BRIEFLY,
ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS HOLD BACK A FEW HOURS.
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A FRONT MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR WITH MODELS STARTING TO COME IN
LINE WITH A LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROPA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THE MID WEEK
FRONT AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH MAKES IT'S WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING ANTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EVEN
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO TRIM DOWN THE
DURATION OF POPS AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER GENERALLY ABOVE 10,000 FEET. AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND TRI WITH A PROB30
INCLUDED. CURRENTLY, INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS MAINLY 5,000 TO
10,000 FEET OR HIGHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 52 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 21 44 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 44 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 13 35 21 50 / 20 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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