841
FXUS64 KMRX 091826
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
60S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, THEN
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A SERIES OF JET STREAKS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN. NEXT
WEEKENDS UPPER TROUGH WILL OF THE STRONGEST SYSTEMS. DUE TO THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS ALL WEEK AND PREDOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM EFFECTING
THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. CURRENTLY, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FOR TUESDAY, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE 15+ DEGRESS ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT THE FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HREF/REFS AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PRODUCE AROUND 1/4 INCH OF QPF.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY, SURFACE RIDGING AND CONTINUED
DOMINANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WITH ANOTHER WAVE THAT QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, A MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS 850MB JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONGER JET FORCING ALSO POSSIBLE AS WELL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ALSO, THE INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH
BROKEN CEILINGS AT CHA POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 3500-4000 FEET.
SURFACE RIDGING TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AS RIDGING MOVES EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 73 51 63 / 0 0 70 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 69 46 57 / 0 0 80 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 68 45 57 / 0 10 80 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 61 41 51 / 0 10 80 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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