924
FXUS64 KMRX 101202
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
702 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
60S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, THEN
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
A MILD SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES, AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR
FL. CHANNELING OF THE SW WINDS UP THE TN VALLEY COULD CREATE SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION TODAY
WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME
LOW 70S AROUND CHATTANOOGA. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING ISN'T STRONG WITH THE NEARLY ZONAL
MID/UPPER FLOW, AND IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THUS, QPF WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT, AROUND A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN MOST SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY
SO AS THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY A A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT, SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS A CLOSED LOW AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS, RAIN
CHANCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
RELATIVELY CALM THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS BUILD
IN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY WITH AT LEAST MVFR BY TONIGHT
COINCIDING WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPO FOR MVFR THIS MORNING AT
CHA. SWLY GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE AT TYS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
FROM A COLD FRONT REACHES THE REGION TONIGHT, CROSSING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERHAPS IFR CIG AT TRI AND TYS LATE TONIGHT. LLWS
STILL BEING SHOWN AS A POSSIBILITY AT TRI, SO KEEPING THAT
DEPICTION IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 51 63 35 / 0 80 50 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 47 57 30 / 0 90 30 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 46 57 30 / 0 90 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 42 51 25 / 0 80 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS
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