339
FXUS64 KMRX 101809
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
109 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
-PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH
-MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
-WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND WITH OVER 1" OF RAIN
POSSIBLE FOR MANY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
CURRENTLY A WARM DAY EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
MID DAY. LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE CALENDAR YEAR SO FAR
WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE 70 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR. THE TEMPERATURE RISE IS BEING AIDED BY THE COMBINATION OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH HELPING TO DRAW UP WARM AIR QUICKLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST.
WE'LL SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT
DIVES DOWN OUT OF THE NORTH BEING TRAILED BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THIS BEING A MORE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IT WILL
BE FAIRLY DRY WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THEIR
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
DROP ABOUT 10+ DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY AND YET ANOTHER 5 OR SO
DEGREES BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY A A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS COULD BE A
FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT,
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A RAINY END
TO THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT QPF FORECAST CALLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TO GET AROUND 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL, WHICH IS NEEDED WITH
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AROUND SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THE RAIN, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IT WILL BE RAINING
IN THE REGION. LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RECOVERING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 63 35 58 / 80 50 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 57 30 52 / 90 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 57 30 52 / 90 20 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 51 25 46 / 80 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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