690
FXUS64 KMRX 111712
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1212 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
- RAIN TONIGHT EXITS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND WITH OVER 1" OF
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MANY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING PRECIP OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS, FALLING FROM A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK, BUT NOTHING APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND, AT LEAST AT THE OBS SITES.
MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR OUR AREA WILL COME WITH THE SHOWERS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS KY, MOVING SE, ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM, WITH
MOST SPOTS RECEIVING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT A BIT MORE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF TS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DROP ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY, AND YET ANOTHER 5 OR SO DEGREES
BY THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY A A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF NOW
SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE INSTEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IT SHOWED YESTERDAY
EVENING, SUGGESTING A LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND A WEAKER WIND FIELD
AHEAD OF IT. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL THAT HAD BEEN MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND THE HWO IS TRENDING DOWN WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, AND THE GFS DOESN'T SHOW A PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A
RAINY END TO THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT QPF FORECAST CALLING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TO GET AROUND 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL, WHICH IS NEEDED
WITH WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY, THEN
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 34 56 37 / 80 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 29 50 31 / 60 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 29 51 32 / 40 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 25 46 25 / 30 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99
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