667
FXUS64 KMRX 011839
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRINGS SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-40, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND INTO
SOUTHWEST VA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FEATURES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ON THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT CHA AND TYS ON THURSDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO MAKE A PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. STORM
TOTAL QPF FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS ROUGHLY 0.5
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT CHA AND TYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
VFR AT TRI UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ALSO FORECAST AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 70 51 71 / 30 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 64 48 71 / 40 50 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 62 49 70 / 50 50 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 55 43 66 / 30 70 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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