177
FXUS64 KMRX 012341
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRINGS SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-40, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND INTO
SOUTHWEST VA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FEATURES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ON THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT CHA AND TYS ON THURSDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO MAKE A PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. STORM
TOTAL QPF FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS ROUGHLY 0.5
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO KEEP LOWER CEILINGS AND
INCOMING RAIN TOMORROW AT BAY, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY AT TRI
BEFORE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTH. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT TYS, WITH
RAIN LESS CERTAIN. DRY SOUTH OF KTYS. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR
CEILINGS AT TRI BRIEFLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN DURING OTHERWISE
MVFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO VFR AT KTRI IS LIKELY BEFORE THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 70 51 71 / 30 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 64 48 71 / 40 50 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 62 49 70 / 50 50 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 55 43 66 / 30 70 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page