884
FXUS64 KMRX 020515 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1215 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRINGS SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-40, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND INTO
SOUTHWEST VA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FEATURES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ON THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT CHA AND TYS ON THURSDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO MAKE A PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. STORM
TOTAL QPF FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS ROUGHLY 0.5
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS NE TN TOMORROW, WITH A
CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS AT TRI. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANT EVEN WITH THE RAIN, BUT THE CHANCE OF MVFR WARRANTS A
PROB30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 51 71 53 / 10 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 48 71 50 / 50 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 49 70 50 / 50 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 43 66 44 / 70 20 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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