210
FXUS64 KMRX 030521 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1221 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 741 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT SHOWERS MOVING OVER FROM MIDDLE TN
THIS EVENING NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS LOCATED. SHOWERS
SHOULD LIGHTEN AND MOVE EAST/NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
KS
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY BRINING WITH IT MAINLY DRIZZLE. WE'LL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER BAND MOVES THROUGH
BRINING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN. COLD‑AIR DAMMING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. TODAY WILL BE THE
"COLDEST" DAY OF THE FORECAST UNDER THESE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS REACHING
60'S FOR MANY.
DRYING BEGINS THE FOLLOWING DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY
LOCKED TO THE NORTH, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE INCREASING, BUT THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY AROUND SUNDAY, A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM, ALONG WITH THE PRECEDING ONES, WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS WARMING TEMPERATURES INCREASE INSTABILITY. DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH MEANS IF THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE MOST "EXCITING" PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO DETERMINE IF
WE'LL BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS... A WARMING TREND BEGINS AFTER
THE MIDWEEK DRYING PERIOD AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
REACH THE LOW 80S. FOR PERSPECTIVE, KNOXVILLE’S AVERAGE HIGH FOR
EARLY MARCH IS STILL BELOW 60 DEGREES, MEANING TEMPERATURES COULD
RUN ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLDOWN APPEARS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI‑CITIES OAK RIDGE
03‑05 80 (1955) 78 (2022) 77 (2022) 78 (1955)
03‑06 82 (1956) 79 (2022) 79 (2022) 81 (1956)
03‑07 82 (2000) 80 (1983) 79 (1956) 80 (1956)
03‑08 81 (2000) 78 (1974) 78 (2000) 79 (2000)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND A NOCTURNAL JET ALOFT, LLWS
WILL BE PRESENT AT CHA AND TYS OVERNIGHT, ENDING AROUND 12Z.
SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN GA,
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CHA LATE TONIGHT, AROUND 10Z GIVE OR TAKE AN
HOUR. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AT CHA AND TYS AS WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW. GUSTS WILL DROP
OFF IN THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 52 79 55 / 0 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 50 78 55 / 10 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 51 76 55 / 10 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 46 73 49 / 20 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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