939
FXUS64 KMRX 041723
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
CURRENTLY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
RIDGING IN THE EAST OUT AHEAD OF IT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THURSDAY.
LOCALLY, THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MOST
FORCING OR MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR NORTH. OTHER THAN LOW-END CHANCES
IN THE NORTH, THE REGION CAN EXPECT TO STAY DRY. ANOTHER, MORE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, DUE TO A DEEPER,
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND STRONGER JET. MUCH OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF RAIN TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER AND LOW-LEVEL JET
STAYING NORTH, OVERALL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 25 KTS OR LESS WITH
INSTABILITY GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1,000 J/KG. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS BUT WITH MINIMAL THREAT FOR ANYTHING
STRONG OR SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS IS LIMITED
WITHIN BOTH SYSTEMS AS THE FLOW WILL BE BELOW 40 KTS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN ITSELF.
ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEIGHT
RISES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD HIGH VALUES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE LISTED
BELOW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER, THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.
POSSIBLE DEPARTURES FROM THIS INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AGAIN LOOKS QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL
KEEP THE MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT TRI FOR LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 57 81 58 / 0 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 55 80 58 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 55 78 57 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 50 76 54 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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