843
FXUS64 KMRX 042356 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
656 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
- VERY WARM FOR THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS AT TIMES.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SKIRTING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHWESTERN FRINGE
COUNTIES WITH A A SHOWER LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL IT
WILL BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR EVEN EXCEED THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DATE. THE VERY WARM THEME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH RECORD HIGHS LOOKING TO BE UNDER THREAT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/TIMING WILL MATTER. RECORD HIGHS ARE LISTED BELOW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY PRECIPITATION FREE. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRIEFLY FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO PUSH
ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING NORTH. THE BETTER
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE
ENERGY AND ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LREF DATA SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND A 10 TO 20%
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 500 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30+KTS OF 0-500MB BULK
SHEAR TOGETHER, SO RIGHT NOW SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW. HOWEVER,
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM UNFOLDS FOR POSSIBLE
INCREASES IN THE SEVERE THREAT.
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO OUR NORTH WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE NBM KEEPS
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND BOTH DAYS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE
MAY BE A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING, BUT IS STILL MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO
HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OR DETAILS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT ALL
SITES, WITH TWO CAVEATS. LACK OF PATTERN CHANGE AND CONTINUED
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE'S A
POSSIBILITY MORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT
BEING AS BULLISH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL STICK WITH SCT020-030
BASES AT ALL SITES FOR NOW. THE OTHER CAVEAT IS THAT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP SOME FOG AT KTRI TONIGHT. KEPT A FEW HOURS
OF 4SM IN THE TAF DUE TO SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG
DEVELOPMENT, AND LOW TEMPS BEING BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS TONIGHT,
BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TOMORROW AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY AT KTYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 81 58 83 / 0 10 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 79 58 82 / 0 10 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 78 58 81 / 0 10 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 75 54 78 / 0 10 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD
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