863
FXUS64 KMRX 141759
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
159 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. FIRST, A HIGH-END MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THEN, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS.
- VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN ON MONDAY, AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PARTS OF SW VA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME IS THE PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
WEATHER IMPACTS AS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS: A HIGH-END MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
FROM SUNDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING.
SE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING AROUND 50 KT
SUNDAY EVENING AND PEAKING AROUND 65 KT LATER IN THE NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR WAVE DUCTING. NBM IS SHOWING A 75% PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF
50 KT OR GREATER ACROSS THE SMOKIES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND A
HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
SEVERE STORMS: THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. WHILE
SURFACE-BASE CAPE WILL BE LACKING, THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH MUCPAE OVER 1000 J/KG, LAPSE RATES OF 8
C/KM, AND DRY AIR ALOFT. BOWING STRUCTURES WITHING THE QLCS WILL BE
AREAS OF ENHANCED STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS, AND IN THE HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. GIVEN THE STRONG QG FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS, THIS LINE WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA,
DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT TIMING. WHILE THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE
SLIGHT RISK IN OUR WESTERN HALF, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
THIS SHIFTED EAST WITH LATER UPDATES.
THE POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF SW VA, BUT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY/KNOXVILLE AREA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SNOWFALL OF 0.5 INCHES OR GREATER HAS NOT OCCURRED
THIS LATE IN THE YEAR IN KNOXVILLE SINCE 1999. HOWEVER, THIS HAS
HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES IN THE TRI-CITIES AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING,
AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SOME NORTHERN SPOTS. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. A LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR
THE HAZARD OF LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 04-14Z OR SO. INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC WITH SE TO SLY WINDS
AND GUSTS. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30KT ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 72 39 52 / 0 10 90 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 74 40 54 / 0 10 90 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 48 73 39 51 / 0 10 90 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 69 45 60 / 0 10 70 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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