738
FXUS64 KMRX 151133
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 719 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- VERY STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCED WINDS WILL IMPACT SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. LESSER, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT AND GUSTY, WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AND PLATEAU.
- VERY COLD AIR SURGES IN MONDAY AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WE ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS TO OUR EAST,
AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
DRAGGING A SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRENGTHENING BEGINNING
TONIGHT, AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 TO 60KTS AT THAT TIME. MOUNTAIN WAVE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE NORMALLY FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATION AND FOOTHILL AREAS STARTING
TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS IS.
ELSEWHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND A FEW
SPOTS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 40 MPH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
EVEN STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT, AND THIS WOULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN
THE HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
ANOTHER EXPECTED IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING. THE TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE LINE
SWEEPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA ENTERING THE PLATEAU BY AROUND 1
AM AND EXITING TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT STILL
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND AT LEAST SOME AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE
ENERGY. MODELS INDICATE THE 0-1KM SHEAR WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR 40 KTS
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS HIGH AS 50KTS ALONG WITH A HODOGRAPH THAT
FAVORS STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME HI-RES MODEL
DATA SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE SBCAPE COULD REACH 250 TO 500
J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 0-3KM CAPE CLIMBING BRIEFLY TO
AROUND OR ABOVE 40 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY, WITH WEAKER INSTABILTY TO THE
NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR
AREA, BUT IT IS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
INSTABILITY AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN SHOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL
TREND. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL RAPIDLY DROP, AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FIRST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
EVEN THE VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER WARM, AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH A SHORT LIVED DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES MAY
OCCUR EVEN IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE FAR
FROM RECORD LOWS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN SOME NORTHERN SPOTS. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ALTHOUGH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS LEANING
MOSTLY DRY AND THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING. BY MID MORNING, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED EVEN PAST SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AND DURING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 40 45 26 / 0 100 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 41 48 24 / 10 90 70 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 40 45 24 / 0 90 60 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 44 53 21 / 10 80 90 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...MCD
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