543
FXUS64 KMRX 170001
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
801 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN HIGH
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, WINDCHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S AND
TEENS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
ALLOWED THE WINTER ADVISORY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES
TO DROP OFF AT THE TOP OF THIS HOUR AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAS
DEPARTED AND TDOT SHOWS PRIMARY ROADS IN GOOD SHAPE. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, UP TO
AN INCH OR SO. BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S AREA
WIDE, WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR COLDER AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE SNOW SHOWERS CAN KEEP
ROADS WET, THOUGH I THINK THIS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND/OR
CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE SNOW ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SLOWEST TO RECEDE. CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS MAY HELP TO DRY ROADS OFF
TONIGHT AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
PER THIS AFTERNOON, A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ATOP
THE EASTERN CONUS AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW EJECTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT LAST
NIGHTS LINE OF CONVECTION HAS LARGELY PROGRESSED THROUGH THE EAST
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND IS NOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
IS TAPPING INTO LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND PROMOTING A SECONDARY
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WHAT ORIGINALLY STARTED AS PREDOMINANT RAIN
HAS TRANSITIONED TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MANY, WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CENTRAL & WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY AT PREDOMINANT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
OVERALL, A A TOUGHER FORECAST AS DESPITE THIS BEING SOME OF THE
BETTER SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THIS COLD SEASON, WE HAVE HAD WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME. COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE BULK OF THE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES ARE OCCURRING IN
THE DAYTIME HOURS, MUCH OF THE SNOW, AT LEAST INITIALLY, IS EXPECTED
TO MELT ON GROUND CONTACT.
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS RECEIVED BY NEIGHBORING
WFOS AND TO OUR OFFICE, SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON ADDING OUR CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8PM EDT. GENERALLY EXPECT INCH
OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW SPOTS ON THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU POTENTIALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UPWARDS
OF 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, RUSSELL, LEE, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL. OVERALL THOUGHTS IN THESE
LOCATIONS REMAIN PRETTY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IN THAT SOME
1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THOUGH, LATEST TRENDS ON THE NEWFOUND
SNOW DEPTH SENSOR SHOW JUST NEAR ONE-HALF INCH THUS FAR. AN SPS WAS
USED TO COVER VALLEY LOCATIONS, SPLIT INTO A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
SECTION. IN NORTHERN AREAS EXPECTATIONS ARE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF-
INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEING POSSIBLE, WITH SOUTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS(AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST NC) NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH MORE
THAN A DUSTING.
BASED ON LATEST NAMBUFR AND RAP13 CROSS-SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS,
SATURATION WILL GRADUALLY SHALLOW OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING,
REDUCING SNOWFALL EFFICIENCY AS DGZ SATURATION BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND MAY EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY SOME.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
8PM, AND EVEN FURTHER MORE NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
POTENTIAL IMPACT MAY ACTUALLY BE THE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF BLACK
ICE ON ROADWAYS AS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FREEZES WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TWENTIES FOLLOWING SUNSET. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
HOW EFFECTIVE CAN THE LIGHT WINDS BE AT DRYING OFF THE WET
PAVEMENTS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL
IN THE SPS AND AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOCUSED SOLELY ON BLACK ICE MAY BE
NEEDED INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE LOW 20S TO TEENS ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND SW
VA COULD GET AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST MID-WEEK, A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES OF SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
ARE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AT TIMES, BUT THIS WOULD BE NON-
IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
STEADY SNOW HAS LEFT THE AREA TO BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE LATE OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN AREAS AS LATE AS 12Z. GUSTY
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A TAD OVERNIGHT, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO TO PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. KTRI WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL IMPROVING TO JOIN
KCHA AND KTYS AT VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 45 29 55 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 40 25 50 / 20 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 24 40 25 50 / 10 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 35 19 45 / 30 20 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
UPDATE...WELLINGTON
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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