444
FXUS64 KMRX 180520
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO RESUME TODAY WITH WARM WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY TO RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE
MILD WEATHER FOR LATE MARCH. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
TODAY IS THE LEAST REAL CHILLY DAY OF THE WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL BE A
DEFINITE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SNOWFLAKES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD,
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE MUNCHING ON THE ATTEMPT AT PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A COUPLE THINGS, ONE IS ANOTHER
NOTABLE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND, THE OTHER IS SEVERAL WEAK ATTEMPTS
AT PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THURSDAY EVENING,
ANOTHER ON SATURDAY, THEN THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE
MUSTERING AN ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO.
DESPITE THE NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES, OVERALL QPF IS WAY UNDER THE
WEEKLY AVERAGE RAINFALL. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS THE EXPECTATION, EVEN
IF WE SCORE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON ANY ONE OF THE DISTURBANCES.
TO RETURN TO THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, WE'RE WARMING UP THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK INTO A WARM WEEKEND, WITH THE RETURN OF 80S OVER THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK WON'T
BE AS SHARP AS THE PAST TWO WERE, BUT IS FORECAST TO RETURN US TO
MILDER LATE MARCH VIBES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY. A CLOUD DECK AROUND 6K FEET WILL
LINGER NEAR TYS AND TRI TODAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 35 68 46 / 10 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 33 63 45 / 10 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 33 62 43 / 10 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 30 57 41 / 10 0 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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