224
FXUS64 KMRX 181745
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
- ONE MORE NIGHT OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO RESUME WITH WARM WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY TO RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE
MILD WEATHER FOR LATE MARCH. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
CURRENTLY WE'VE CROSSED BACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TODAY WITH
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING OVERHEAD, BUT THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON IS
20-30 DEGREES MEANING THAT ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
UNLIKELY, BUT A FEW PEOPLE IN SOUTHEAST TN COULD GET A QUICK SPIT
OF RAIN. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT, AND
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-DAYS.
TEMPERATURES REALLY BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP STARTING TOMORROW WHEN THE
SUN WILL TRY AND MAKE IT'S RETURN TO THE REGION. WE'LL CONTINUE THE
WARM UP THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WHICH IS FORECASTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO ECLIPSE THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WE'LL GET A COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT DIPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW FAR
WEST AND SOUTH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND ALONG THIS
FRONT TRYING TO FIGHT AGAINST THE STRONG SOUTHWEST RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN, AND AS OF NOW THE DYNAMICS DON'T LOOK
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES TO START OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER, BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 38 69 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 64 44 72 / 10 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 35 64 43 71 / 10 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 58 40 67 / 0 10 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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