983
FXUS64 KMRX 201122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY WITH LOW-END
POTENTIAL OF HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TROUGHING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MAINTAIN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH, TO MID/UPPER 60S NORTH. WINDS COULD GET
BREEZY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WIND GETS CHANNELED UP
THE VALLEY, WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN
25-30 KT.
A SURFACE FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROP SW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES
E-W ALONG THE TN/VA/KY BORDER AREA ON SATURDAY, AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME GOOD MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-8.5 C/KM AND
MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG AT CHA, BUT THERE IS A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO REALIZE THIS INSTABILITY. FORCING
APPEARS WEAK SO CONFIDENCE ON A SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A SW SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MEAN LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
FOLLOWING CALM CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, SW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT TRI WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SWEEPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LLWS INTRODUCED AT TRI LATE TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY JET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 54 84 56 / 0 0 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 56 79 57 / 10 10 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 54 79 55 / 0 10 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 52 72 52 / 10 30 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS
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