271  
FNUS74 KMRX 210914  
FWSMRX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW CREEK RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
514 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 21.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE,CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE...AT 1-800-697-0075. IF POSSIBLE, PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK  
FOR EVERY SPOT FORECAST REQUEST.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER FORECAST  
FOR SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH WILL BE AROUND THE MID 30S PERCENT BOTH  
DAYS. WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST, THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. GUSTS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH NEAR 16 MPH.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 17 MPH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........29 29 22 19 19 25 32  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............67 70 73 76 77 78 79  
RH..............59 53 48 43 42 39 36  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 4 4 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 11 11 12 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 13 16 17 16  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........19 31 26 30 26 37 29 40 33 25 38 31  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH  
TEMP............78 76 73 68 66 64 63 62 61 60 60 59  
RH..............38 42 48 57 63 67 72 78 81 81 81 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW W W W W W W SW SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 14 12 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 9  
   
SUNDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........27 23 28 30 21 11 11 11 11 12 12 13  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............59 58 58 60 64 70 74 77 79 81 82 82  
RH..............87 90 87 84 73 59 51 45 41 37 35 34  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 7 8 10 11 13 14 14 16 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 8 9 12 13 15 16 18 21 22  
 
 
FORECASTER...KERRIE SIMMONS  
REQUESTED BY...DREW FORD  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2606854.1/MRX  
.DELDT 03/21/26  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL DREW.FORD@USDA.GOV  
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