588
FXUS64 KMRX 250548
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
148 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND AND RETURNING SHOWER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (0.1 TO 0.2 INCH) AND MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES AND
TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
BE NORTH OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25
INCH. WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. MAINLY
CONCERN WILL BE THE LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
FOR THURSDAY, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND MAY EFFECT SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE.
FOR FRIDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED JET DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
DUE TO CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF, BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT.
ENSEMBLE PROJECTS NO MORE THAN 0.10-0.20 INCH MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ZONAL FLOW AND CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A
WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR, DRY WEATHER, CALM OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. S TO SW
FLOW WILL BUILD BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 54 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 52 80 61 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 52 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 48 75 58 / 0 10 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KS
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