633
FXUS64 KMRX 251128
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 724 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF COOLER
PERIOD SATURDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, MOSTLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY NIGHT, A PROMINENT RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING ATOP THE EASTERN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN UPR/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE PERIODICALLY OBSERVED ON REGIONAL
RADAR, BUT NONE OF THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN FOCUS BEING ON CONTINUED POOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH LOW
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RHS ONCE AGAIN. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE AS 925-850MB FLOW IS WEAK. HOWEVER, WITH A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION, OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FUNNELING.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES MEAN FLOW THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED H85 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP AFTERNOON RHS RECOVER
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
RAIN.
A MORE PRONOUNCED VORT MAX SWINGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE FRONT LACKS
POTENCY DUE TO RIDGING INFLUENCE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. NAMBUFR MAINTAINS
A PROMINENT INVERSION ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY AND POOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY
AND RAIN AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO ARE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40.
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR ADVECTION POST FROPA SATURDAY. DAY 5 SPC FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO GET VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN FROM THE FRONT. LOW RHS
AND BREEZY WINDS COULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOW AFTERNOON RH SEEMS LIKELY SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT WINDS LOOK TO
TREND LIGHTER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WORK WEEK. LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURN MID-NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD VERY WELL PREVENT THAT
FROM COMING TO FRUITION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR, DRY WEATHER, AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW
FLOW WILL BUILD BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 53 80 62 / 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 53 80 60 / 0 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 48 76 58 / 0 10 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS
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