110
FXUS64 KMRX 261147
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 742 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE TODAY HELPING TO LOWER FIRE
CONCERNS.
- LIGHT RAIN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY, GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40.
- GENERAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEGINNING
WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND TRANSITIONING INTO A COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED
STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A STRONG MID‑LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD. AS THIS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY, RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 80S.
AT LOWER LEVELS, A LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY WITH LOW RH VALUES. A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET LATE THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRAW IN MODEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS
LIMITED.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE BROADER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
DYNAMIC AS A COLD FRONT TIED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD, LARGELY DUE TO
DIMINISHING UPPER SUPPORT AND ONLY MARGINAL GULF MOISTURE. EVEN SO,
MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR AND INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE FIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
DROUGHT AFFECTED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POTENTIALLY REACHING 20-30
MPH IN THE SMOKYS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT OVERALL, WITH
ENSEMBLE AVERAGES GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A RETURN TO
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR EXPECTED. VARYING CIG HEIGHT. RIDGING
MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE SW AND A SE SFC HIGH, WILL BRING
INCREASED SWLY FLOW TO THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KT POSSIBLE, WITH TYS
FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN SWLY FLOW. SUSTAINED AND GUSTS
SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT MAY BRING LLWS TO TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 60 84 41 / 0 0 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 62 79 37 / 0 0 70 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 60 79 36 / 0 0 70 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 59 74 33 / 10 0 80 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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