243
FXUS64 KMRX 270516
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
116 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON SATURDAY.
- FROST AND FREEZE POSSIBLE NORTH NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TRANSITION FROM A DOMINANT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE ACTIVE, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THROUGH
FRIDAY, HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED DUE
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GULF RETURN, THOUGH SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE
A HIGH PROBABILITY GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT OF QPF TOTALS REMAINING
BELOW 0.20 INCHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND, RESTORING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. TYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY AT
THE SURFACE WITH CHA AND TRI SEEING LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. AS
SUCH, LLWS WAS ADDED IN FOR THOSE TWO SITES WITH TRI SEEING THE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2,000 FEET AGL. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A SHIFT
TO MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. DURING AND AFTER THE RAIN, MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 40 63 41 / 40 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 36 59 35 / 80 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 36 59 35 / 80 30 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 33 55 31 / 90 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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