642
FXUS64 KMRX 270639
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE TN VALLEY TODAY, AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON
SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.
- FROST AND FREEZE POSSIBLE NORTH NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY.
CONVECTION AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE WILL
JUST HAVE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS, WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORMS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO
A QUARTER INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA; SOUTHERN SECTIONS
WILL SEE LESS OR NO RAIN. THIS PRECIP WILL NOT DO MUCH ALLEVIATE THE
RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FROM THE SW WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT FROM THE
NORTH, WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RH VALUES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE LOWER AS WELL AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN, DROPPING INTO THE
20-30% RANGE. SUNDAY MAY HAVE EVEN LOWER RH AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S - RH VALUES MAY BE IN THE 15-25% RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING IN NORTHERN SECTIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S RETURNING ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. TYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY AT
THE SURFACE WITH CHA AND TRI SEEING LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. AS
SUCH, LLWS WAS ADDED IN FOR THOSE TWO SITES WITH TRI SEEING THE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2,000 FEET AGL. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A SHIFT
TO MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. DURING AND AFTER THE RAIN, MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 39 62 40 / 50 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 36 59 35 / 80 40 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 76 35 59 35 / 80 40 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 32 54 32 / 90 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
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