080
FXUS64 KMRX 291121
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 717 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH TUESDAY, AND REMAIN ELEVATED REST OF
THE WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED RAINY PERIOD IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ALLEVIATE NEAR-TERM
DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING CAMP CREEK HAS GUSTED INTO THE 40S, WHICH IS A
BIT SURPRISING GIVEN BOTH THE CROSS MOUNTAIN WIND FLOW IS GENERALLY
SUB 20 KNOTS AND THE CROSS MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DOESN'T
SEEM SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE WINDS, AND YET. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THOUGH, AND PERSISTS GUSTY WINDS IN
GREENE COUNTY INTO THE LATE MORNING, BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE
AFTERNOON TAKES HOLD.
VERY DRY AIR AGAIN TODAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUM VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S OBSERVED
VALUES IN THE LOW 20S AND TEENS. WINDS WILL BE PIVOTING TO A RETURN
FLOW SOUTHERLY POSTURE, BUT WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY FOR THE
MOST PART. FLOW INCREASES MONDAY, BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THANKS TO STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.
RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND STALLING OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
A FEW DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO PIVOT THROUGH THE
EASTERN US. THE END RESULT IS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS TO THE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT DROUGHT-ALLEVIATING RAINS. QPF HAS WAVERED A
BIT WITH SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES, LIKELY DEPENDENT ON
OVERALL FORCING AND EXACT LATITUDINAL SETUP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
WE'RE ON THE FARTHER END FROM THE DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE HEART
OF THE COUNTRY, SO NATURALLY THERE'S ONLY A 30-50% CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR MORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES EXIST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE'S A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING AN END TO THE
STATIONARY DREARY WEATHER. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME RANGE, SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE LREF DEPICTS
IT AS DOES THE EURO OPERATIONAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT CHA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 54 76 58 / 0 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 50 74 58 / 0 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 50 74 57 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 45 71 52 / 0 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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