041
FXUS64 KMRX 292311
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 710 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
- MOSTLY DRY AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN REMAINING
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED RAINY PERIOD IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ALLEVIATE NEAR-TERM
DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
- NO RISK OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES UNTIL THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW RH AND
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MUCH WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S.
TOMORROW MORNING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE TN/KY
STATE LINE AND INTO NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. SOME WEAK
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS
GENERAL AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT RH SHOULD
BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO REAL CHANGES FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. LREF PROBS
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY STILL
SITTING BETWEEN 30 TO 50%.
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND STALLING OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
A FEW DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO PIVOT THROUGH THE
EASTERN US. THE END RESULT IS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS TO THE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT DROUGHT-ALLEVIATING RAINS. QPF HAS WAVERED A
BIT WITH SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES, LIKELY DEPENDENT ON
OVERALL FORCING AND EXACT LATITUDINAL SETUP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
WE'RE ON THE FARTHER END FROM THE DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE HEART
OF THE COUNTRY, SO NATURALLY THERE'S ONLY A 30-50% CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR MORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES EXIST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE'S A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING AN END TO THE
STATIONARY DREARY WEATHER. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME RANGE, SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE LREF DEPICTS
IT AS DOES THE EURO OPERATIONAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
WITH THE SETTING SUN, AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TOMORROW IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 75 60 83 / 10 10 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 73 59 81 / 10 10 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 73 58 81 / 10 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 71 53 78 / 10 20 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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