229
FXUS64 KMRX 301717
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- VERY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR-TERM
DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
CURRENTLY STILL A FAIRLY WARM EVENING AS OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
INCREASING CLOUDS COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. WITH A WEAK ROUND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY
TRAVERSING ACROSS WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES NEAR
THE KY/TN/VA BORDERS TOMORROW. BUT IF ANYONE GETS RAIN THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. BIGGEST
WEATHER OF NOTE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS THE CONTINUING
WARMING TEMPERATURES, CLIMBING INTO THE 80'S FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE TEMPERATURES IT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WHICH WILL HELP DECREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST SYSTEM IS A SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH MAY STALL OUT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL,
AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
AND HOPEFULLY OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS WHEN
EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE. THE SYSTEMS DURING THE WORK WEEK DO NOT
LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THERE'S A MORE PRONOUNCED SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY
BRING SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, BUT WITH IT BEING
5+ DAYS OUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO GET INTO THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT... BUT THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY AT
TYS, THEN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR LLWS SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK PROBABLE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 82 60 84 / 0 20 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 80 60 83 / 0 20 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 59 82 / 0 20 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 78 56 80 / 0 20 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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