691
FXUS64 KMRX 031741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FROST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
CURRENTLY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BUT THAT COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. RADAR WILL
REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A SPOTTY SHOWER IN THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S IN THE TN VALLEY. A SMIDGE MORE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TODAY.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A
TROUGH MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE PARENT LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LOW WITH STORM TIMING LATE IN THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET A MUCH NEEDED RAIN
WITH FORECAST RAIN TOTALS AROUND ONE INCH.
RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
WEATHER. FROST WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND THE MOUNTAINS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS, GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS AT TYS, WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN AND
INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS
POSSIBLE NEAR CHA TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 84 55 69 / 10 50 100 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 82 55 66 / 10 60 100 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 82 53 67 / 0 60 100 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 81 55 65 / 10 60 90 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KRS
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