329
FXUS64 KMRX 031848
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE
OF A RIDGE WHILE TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF BREAKING ANY DAILY RECORDS. QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A SFC
LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A VORT LOBE
MAY PROMOTE SOME ISOLATED TO WEAKLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE UPR TROUGHING WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, GIVING WAY TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE LOWER LEVELS AS A
40-45 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA, AND PROMOTES
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. NO WIND ADVISORY IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE LLJ IS MORE MARGINAL, AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK WITH THE SFC LOW SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THOSE HIGHEST PEAKS, SUCH AS COVE
MOUNTAIN, GUSTING TO 40-45MPH.
REGARDING CONVECTIVE STRENGTH, LATEST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE DIURNAL SFC INVERSION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SUGGESTING
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED DURING AN
OVERNIGHT PASSAGE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE MODERATE
TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF FORCING SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF
40MPH, BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
TIMING.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A MOSTLY
DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE SETTLE INTO A DRIER PERIOD FROM
HERE ON OUT. A FEW INSTANCES OF MORNING FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHERN AND HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS MON-WED, WITH WED MORNING
LOOKING THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS, GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS AT TYS, WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN AND
INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS
POSSIBLE NEAR CHA TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 83 54 69 / 10 40 100 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 82 54 67 / 10 40 100 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 81 53 67 / 0 30 100 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 80 54 65 / 10 50 90 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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