644
FXUS64 KMRX 040601
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE STILL OVER THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. BY MID AFTERNOON, COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WITH SUMMERLIKE PULSE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY IN THE TN
VALLEY.
BY THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH A TROUGH MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE,
THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LOW WITH STORM TIMING
LATE IN THE EVENING. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET A MUCH NEEDED RAIN
WITH FORECAST RAIN TOTALS AROUND ONE INCH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED IN THE TN VALLEY AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL
BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS 40 MPH+) WITH
850 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 30-35 KNOTS WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION THAT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
THOUGH I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TALLEST PEAKS HIT 40-
45MPH BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
WEATHER. FROST MAY BE A CONCERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND THE MOUNTAINS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AND A WARMING TREND
WILL START WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR TAFS TO CONTINUE UNTIL ARRIVAL OF TS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST BACK TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN TN. A PROB30 AT KTRI IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE A DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BE APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD TONIGHT.
TIMING IS CLOSE TO A 6Z ARRIVAL FOR KCHA AND KTYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 54 69 45 / 40 100 50 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 54 67 42 / 40 100 60 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 53 67 41 / 30 100 40 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 54 65 38 / 50 90 70 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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