138
FXUS64 KMRX 050008
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
808 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 752 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAKDOWN AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ON THE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AS AN INITIAL VORTICITY LOBE HELPS KICK START THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MLCAPE AND DCAPE ARE AROUND 500-
700J/KG PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS. STRONGEST CONVECTION COULD BRING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR, SMALL HAIL, OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, BUT
SEVERE IS UNLIKELY.
AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, A SWLY H85 JET NEAR 40-
45KTS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE PER LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. LATEST SPC HREF RUN DEPICTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SBCAPE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVES IN, WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL.
WHILE THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT VERY CLOSE TO ZERO. A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS WIDESPREAD, IT WOULDN'T CATCH ME BY SURPRISE TO SEE COVE
MOUNTAIN GUSTING TO AROUND 40-45MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH THE AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND MID AND LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD UNDER THE EFFECT OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SEEMS LIKELY, WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD. AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL
ENTAIL LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL MORNING FROST CONDITIONS IF
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS STRONG ENOUGH MON-WED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POPPING UP AHEAD OF A BLOB OF
SHOWERS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THUNDER HAS BEEN SPARSE BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BLOB OF ACTIVITY MOVES IN. SOME
STRONG STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OR ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BLOB OF ACTIVITY BUT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS LOOKS LESS
LIKELY, SO THUNDER HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TEMPO CONDITION. CIGS
AND VIS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IFR CIGS OR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF. LIGHT RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR TYS AND TRI WITH
MVFR SLOW TO IMPROVE. VFR WILL RETURN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
RAIN MOVES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 68 44 70 / 100 70 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 65 41 66 / 100 80 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 67 40 68 / 100 60 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 64 37 64 / 100 90 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...MCD
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