458
FXUS64 KMRX 110603
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
203 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WORSENING
DROUGHT AND FIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY,
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE PLAINS, BUT THE STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING OUR AREA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS GET DEFLECTED AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE.
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
RAISE CONCERNS FOR FIRE INTERESTS NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS WEEKEND BUT INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES, AND SW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ENHANCED BY
CHANNELING UP THE TN VALLEY - POTENTIALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH 25+ MPH
GUSTS. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS
SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS NEXT WEEK. WE
MIGHT COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF 85 TO 90 WILL BE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY GROUND CONDITIONS, IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN THAT, AS MODEL GUIDANCE
MAY BE UNDERDOING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TAF CYCLE ONCE
AGAIN. A VERY LOW CHANCE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPS IN THE
TYS VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 55 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 53 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 54 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 51 82 56 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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