205
FXUS64 KMRX 160551
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 146 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WORSENING
DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THANKS TO A
PERSISTENT LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL TODAY.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25-35%,
WITH SW WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. THIS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, AND WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR THAT
TOMORROW MORNING AFTER COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WHAT REMAINS OF THEM WILL ENTER
OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM EDT.
WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS (MAINLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH IN THE PLATEAU/SW VA/NE TN). MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (~800-900 MUCAPE IN THE NAM) THAT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING ACROSS
OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE
THREAT.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING RECORDS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH DIFFER MORE IN THE
DETAILS THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WE WILL SEE. ENSEMBLE DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF
SEEING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AND CLOSER TO A 20% CHANCE OF
SEEING MORE THAN A HALF INCH (24 HOUR PERIOD). A SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND
WARMER AGAIN TUESDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KMRX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS WINDS NEAR 2KFT APPROACHING 30KTS ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR TYS AND
TRI. KHTX DATA IS SLIGHTLY LESS SO LLWS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF KCHA
AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR GUSTS AT ALL THREE
SITES. LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON & EVENING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME VCSH AT TYS/TRI, WITH A PROB30 INCLUDING SOME TSRA AT TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 61 90 63 / 20 20 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 60 85 61 / 20 50 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 58 86 60 / 30 40 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 58 81 56 / 10 60 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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