851
FXUS64 KMRX 161714
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIMITED
AT BEST INSTABILITY. A WEAK WAVE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE DAY, WE HAVE LOWERED
THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION TO 30-50 PERCENT INSTEAD OF LIKELY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE/PLATEAU LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE REGION MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THE PERSISTENT LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SPONSOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 80S
AND WILL NOT BE FAR OFF OF RECORD HIGHS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE
LOW BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS, DROPPING INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH
SW WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IT
STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, BUT IF ONE IS
DEEMED TO BE NEEDED IT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN
COORDINATION WITH THE FORESTRY FOLKS CAN OCCUR.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BE INTERRUPTED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND THESE MAY MOVE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN AREAS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
WILDFIRES. RIGHT NOW, QPF VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MODELS SHOW SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY (HREF MEAN MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND OR
LESS THAN 500 J/KG) THAT MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING ACROSS OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES. SHEAR
LOOKS TOO WEAK TO SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING RECORDS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH DIFFER A BIT MORE IN THE
DETAILS THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WE WILL SEE. ENSEMBLE DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS AROUND A 20% (SOUTH) TO
50% (NORTH/WEST) CHANCE OF SEEING OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER
AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST IS THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE TODAY THROUGH THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS TRI AND TYS. FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AND MOVE EAST INTO EAST
TENNESSEE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THAT
REGION AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH
CAPES OF 500-1000 BUT DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BELOW CLOUD BASE,
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR TRI AND TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 89 61 88 / 20 10 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 85 59 86 / 50 10 0 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 85 58 86 / 50 10 0 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 81 54 84 / 50 10 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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