524
FXUS64 KMRX 230547
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH DAY WITH VALUES IN
THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
A MID/UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MAIN IMPACT IS THE FDS
THAT GOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND LOW AFTERNOON RH. THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF STRONGEST GUSTS AND
LOWEST RH ARE EXPECTED IN FAR NE TN AND SW VA.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES GREATER CONTROL TOMORROW.
WHILE LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ACCOMPANY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN RH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GULF.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NAM SOLUTION DEPICTS A
DIMINISHING LLJ AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO OUR REGION, WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT AVAILABILITY INSTABILITY AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GFS
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER 500 J/KG RANGE FROM 40-70%, BUT WHEN
LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1000J/KG PROBABILITIES
SHARPLY FALL TO 30% OR LOWER. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY
SEEMS TO BE GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS HI-RES MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE.
A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR LLJ TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE WHILE PERSISTING IN STRENGTH AS IT
SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO GREATER JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR > 30KTS RELATIVE TO
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THOUGH THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT W TO SW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 57 85 61 / 0 0 10 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 56 83 61 / 0 0 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 52 80 56 / 0 0 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page