209
FXUS64 KMRX 240635
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
- WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP BEGINNING TODAY. THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE IS STILL A DAY OUT, SO FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO
NONEXISTENT, BUT ENOUGH CAPE UNDERNEATH A 500 MB INVERSION SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TERRAIN FORCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NC BORDER, BUT I COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THE PLATEAU REGION AS WELL. WON'T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING
STRIKE, BUT THE INVERSION DIGS IN RIGHT AROUND THE -10C LAYER, SO
STORM DEPTH INTO THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL ZONES WILL BE LIMITED.
SHORTWAVE RIDING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL REALLY START TO ARRIVE
FOR SATURDAY, UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
PLANNED. CAMS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW THIS UNFOLDS,
BUT GENERALLY A FEW STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
WEAK TROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE'S SOME SHEAR PRESENT, PRIMARILY SPEED SHEAR, SO
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS A
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL FALL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A DRYING OUT DAY. GUIDANCE HAS THIN CAPE
PROFILES, AND WITH THE SUPPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN,
EXPECT DRY TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER TIER OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE WEEK, WITH A
PUNCHING SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS THE FOCUS OF THE SPC'S EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, WITH A LARGE
RISK TO OUR WEST. WE'RE LIKELY TO GET THE SLOPPY SECONDS OF WHATEVER
COMES OF THAT SYSTEM, WHICH IN PART DEPENDS ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHEAR, ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR, WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT TIMING IS ONCE AGAIN AIMING TO
BE IN THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING, THE SUBTROPICAL JET ENHANCING WESTERLIES
WILL STAY DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEK, POSSIBLY COUPLED WITH A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRESENTING OUR REGION WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AND KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, 1
INCH PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AREA WIDE, AND 2 INCH
PROBABILITIES ARE 20% TRI CITIES, 40% KNOXVILLE, 60% CHATTANOOGA. IF
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN COME TO FRUITION THAT WOULD BE VERY
BENEFICIAL FOR FIGHTING THE DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A QUIET TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
LIMITED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH CLOUD COVER GENERALLY BETWEEN 5,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 62 78 57 / 10 70 90 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 60 73 54 / 10 50 100 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 60 73 54 / 10 60 90 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 55 71 51 / 10 20 90 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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