383
FXUS64 KMRX 242325
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
- WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
CURRENTLY, TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE 250 OR LESS SO WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR SATURDAY, A SHORT-WAVE WITH RRQ UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE MORNING HOURS.
SPC HREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN CAPES OF 750-1000. A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
FOR SUNDAY, SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PRODUCING A 700MB CAPPING INVERSION. ONLY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TERRAIN CONVECTION. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARM.
FOR MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES EAST INTO
THE CAROLINAS. A BREEZY AND VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THESE SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND
HOW PHASING IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR LATER UPDATES.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER STORY WITH WAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THIS FLOW POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SATURDAY, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY CHA/TYS. MVFR
(OR LOWER) CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS/STORMS, AND WILL HAVE PROB30 GROUPS ALL SITES TRYING TO
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 76 57 83 / 60 90 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 72 55 79 / 30 100 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 74 54 80 / 40 90 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 74 54 75 / 10 90 60 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99
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